Iran also does not want terrorism leakages into its territory. Only if the Taliban keeps its commitment to prevent the leakage terrorist activity into their countries from Afghanistan will they keep their borders open and transport trade thriving.
Heroin production brings in hundreds of millions of dollars and the Taliban has sponsored and taxed the heroin economy since the s. Highly labour-intensive, the poppy economy has been a principal source of employment in Afghanistan along with the security sector.
Those who attempt bans — as the Taliban did in the s — or eradication — as the international community and the Afghan government did post — find themselves facing significant losses of political capital and violent opposition. The Taliban will likely bargain with the international community for recognition and economic aid before attempting any extensive bans.
As in the s, the Taliban will likely bargain with the international community for recognition and economic aid before attempting any extensive bans. But it also understands Iran, China, and most importantly Russia, would be pleased to see bans even in the absence of alternative livelihoods which take decades to develop.
Another risk of trialling a shutdown of the poppy economy is losing its established European market to be replaced with synthetic opioids. Chinese- and Indian-produced synthetic opioids , preferred by traffickers over bulkier heroin, have swept North American drug markets with devastating consequences. Related Topics Afghanistan U.
More on U. Congress Three reasons Congress finally passed an infrastructure bill Sarah A. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The ISK cannot currently bring the Taliban regime down. But it could become an envelope for any future defections. If it fails to prevent bloody ISK urban attacks, like the one that killed 13 U.
Yet the Taliban wants and needs Chinese money. If the Taliban fails to control these attacks, its improved relations with Iran could deteriorate — something all the more likely if the attacks set off runaway sectarian fighting that sucks in Taliban factions.
If the Taliban does not prevent the leakage of anti-Shia terrorism into Iran — from Taliban factions, foreign fighters, or ISK — Iran could attempt to activate its Fatimiyoun units in Afghanistan. The Fatimiyoun are Afghan Shia fighters, numbering the tens of thousands, whom Iran trained and deployed to fight in Syria and Libya. These future threats are far more potent than the currently small, weak, divided, and encircled anti-Taliban opposition of Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh in the Panjshir Valley.
In its shadow governance, the Taliban effectively delivered order and enforcing rules, such as ensuring that teachers showed up to teach when it allowed schools to operate and that government employees did not steal supplies from clinics. The Taliban also got much political capital from delivering swift, not corrupt, and enforced dispute resolution and from protecting the poppy economy.
And it has excelled in taxing economic activity in Afghanistan, legal and illegal — from NATO supply trucks to government aid programs, drugs, and logging. But it has no experience with or technocratic capacity for delivering or even just maintaining other existing services such as electricity or water delivery, let alone tackling complex issues like setting macroeconomic policies or addressing droughts.
Separately, U. Other analysts say the Taliban also continue to get money from Pakistan and, to a lesser degree, Iran. However, while the Taliban appear to have raised enough money to take Afghanistan by force, there are some doubts they have sufficient funding to govern Afghanistan on their own.
Earlier this month, U. Additionally, some former U. Treasury Department official, told VOA.
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